Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression.

We propose testing for business cycle asymmetries in Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) models. We derive the parametric restrictions on MS-AR models that rule out types of asymmetries such as deepness, steepness, and sharpness, and set out a testing procedure based on Wald statistics which have standard asymptotic. For a two-regime model, such as that popularized by Hamilton (1989), we show that deepness implies sharpness (and vice versa) while the process is always non-steep. We illustrate with two and three-state MS models of US GNP growth, and with models of US output and employment. Our findings are compared with those obtained from standard non-parametric tests.BUSINESS CYCLES ; TESTS

Failure of morphology of (0 deg)8 graphite/epoxy as influenced by environments and processing

Optical and scanning electron microscopy were used to investigate the failure morphology of graphite/epoxy specimens which had been tested until tensile failure. Failure morphology was studied as a function of the quality control variables of specimen preparation technique, prepreg batch, and cure condition, and also as a function of the environmental parameters of temperature and moisture content. Defective specimens were found to exhibit a low energy failure morphology. Poor specimen edge preparation and one batch of prepreg when tested at elevated temperature or moisture content also exhibited energy failure morphology. Postcuring had no effect on strength but did slightly alter failure morphology. Temperature or moisture appeared to decrease flaw sensitivity and thus increase strength; however, moisture also appeared to increase interfacial debonding between filament and matrix. When combined moisture and temperature increased interfacial debonding and made the epoxy matrix more prone to fracture

Starburst and AGN activity in ultraluminous infrared galaxies

(Abridged) We examine the power source of 41 local Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxies using archival infrared and optical photometry. We fit the observed Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs) with starburst and AGN components; each component being drawn from a family of templates. We find all of the sample require a starburst, whereas only half require an AGN. In 90% of the sample the starburst provides over half the IR emission, with a mean fractional luminosity of 82%. When combined with other galaxy samples we find that starburst and AGN luminosities correlate over 6 decades in IR luminosity suggesting that a common factor governs both luminosities, plausibly the gas masses in the nuclear regions. We find that the mid-IR 7.7 micron line-continuum ratio is no indication of the starburst luminosity, or the fractional AGN luminosity, and therefore that this ratio is not a reliable diagnostic of the power source in ULIRGs. We propose that the scatter in the radio-IR correlation in ULIRGs is due to a skewed starburst IMF and/or relic relativistic electrons from a previous starburst, rather than contamination from an obscured AGN. We show that most ULIRGs undergo multiple starbursts during their lifetime, and by inference that mergers between more than two galaxies may be common amongst ULIRGs. Our results support the evolutionary model for ULIRGs proposed by Farrah et al 2001, where they can follow many different evolutionary paths of starburst and AGN activity in transforming merging spiral galaxies into elliptical galaxies, but that most do not go through an optical QSO phase. The lower level of AGN activity in our local sample than in z~1 HLIRGs implies that the two samples are distinct populations. We postulate that different galaxy formation processes at high-z are responsible for this difference.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

The Death of the Overreaction Anomaly? A Multifactor Explanation of Contrarian Returns

Are the returns accruing to De Bondt and Thaler’s (1985) (DT) much celebrated overreaction anomaly pervasive? Using the CRSP data set used by for the period 1926 through 1982, and, for the first time, an additional two decades of data (1983 through 2003), we provide preliminary support for the original work of DT, reporting that the overreaction anomaly has not only persisted over the past twenty years but has increased, on a risk-unadjusted basis. However, using the three factor model of Fama and French (1993) (FF), we find no statistically significant alpha can be garnered via the overreaction anomaly, with contrarian returns driven by the factors of size and value, not the behavioral biases of investors. It is our conjecture that the anomaly is not robust under the FF framework, with ‘contrarian’ investors following such a scheme simply compensated for the inherent portfolio risk held.Overreaction, anomaly, multifactor asset pricing model

An assembly to provide a time reference for the JPL Network Operations Control Center, Real-Time

A device is described which provides the value of date coordinated universal time (date UTC) to the JPL Network Operations Control Center, Real Time (NOCC-RT) facility. The NOCC-RT is the real time portion of the NOCC upgrade task. The time scale is generated in the NOCC-RT clock processor; however, there is a continuous reference to UTC, as realized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and transmitted by Earth orbiting satellites. An important functional design requirement is the 99.9 pct. availability

Preasymptotic multiscaling in the phase-ordering dynamics of the kinetic Ising model

The evolution of the structure factor is studied during the phase-ordering dynamics of the kinetic Ising model with conserved order parameter. A preasymptotic multiscaling regime is found as in the solution of the Cahn-Hilliard-Cook equation, revealing that the late stage of phase-ordering is always approached through a crossover from multiscaling to standard scaling, independently from the nature of the microscopic dynamics.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, to be published in Europhys. Let